On Sep 20, 11:25*am, "Dartmoor Will"
wrote:
"ron button" wrote in message

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"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message
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"Dartmoor Will" wrote in message news:...
I expect a yellow warning will be issued tomorrow for torrential rain.

Auto forecast (global ukmo model) today (thurs) is going for it, eg,
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...st/haytor-vale

I'd be surprised if a yellow heads up were not issued today.

Ex Nadine will be influencing developments in Biscay this weekend.
Couple that with a trough extending SE from Iceland, the ingredients are
there for an interesting cyclogenesis in the SW of England. Warm moist
tropical air will be entrained with some mid-level instability leading
to torrential downpours and possibly localised strong winds, although I
think the main emphasis will be on the rain during Sunday and Monday.

Models are oscillating at present and any low may yet stay to the south
of the UK but with an upper trough extending from the NW I think the
writing is on the wall for some severe weather!

Latest FAX output from Exeter is threatening.

Note 06Z GFS even brings ex Nadine herself into the UK on Tuesday, not
sure about that, but if it happens it could be very nasty.

Backtracked as expected, but a close call still, if Nadine gets on
forward side of longwave upper trough it could still happen on Tuesday..
Another scenario is that we may get an elongated cold front with waves
running up it into UK, potential for very high rainfall totals in that
one too.
Have to write my weekly forecast soon, I think the emphasis next week
will be on WET :-)

OK off out now to enjoy the sunshine while I can LOL.

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

Since August 5th we here in sunny Woodford Green have had barely 20mm of
rain,and it's becoming very dry indeed,so a good soaking on Sunday or
Monday or Tuesday would be very welcome ,as Will would say ,bring it on !

GFS 06Z is looking peachy!

Will
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I have looked but I cannot find the word 'peachy' in the Met Glossary.

:-(

Len
Wembury