Good morning folks. Here's a look at the 00zs from today Thursday September the 28th 2012.

All models show a NW flow blowing over the UK in the wake of the past few days troublesome Low. Apart from scattered showers the weather would be bright and breezy. a trough slides SE in the flow tonight followed by an advancing ridge of High pressure over southern Britain in the first half of the weekend. Later in the weekend Low pressure closes in to the NW with a freshening Westerly wind driving troughs across Britain and clearing SE on Monday. Areas of rain in association with these troughs cross the UK hanging on in the far South for much of Monday.

GFS then follows on for much of next week with West or SW winds and rain at times as the basic synoptic pattern remains unchanged. The SE will see the driest conditions between just light rain or showers and temperatures here could recover from recent values somewhat. In FI a North/South split seems the most likely trend with rain and wind at times in the North, in the proximity of Atlantic Lows to the North while the South sees longer dry spells and just occasional bursts of rain close to High pressure to the south or SE. Temperatures would likely become somewhat above normal at times in the South and Southeast.

The GFS Ensembles do not like the look of the operational in it's second half of the run showing it as a major outlier with the preferred likelihood of uppers near the long term mean in rather changeable conditions at the surface the moxt likely outcome.

The Jet Stream is realigning steadily to a West to East flow across the UK in a few days time now that the deep trough in the flow around the UK is weakening.

UKMO for midnight on Wednesday shows Low pressure to the North of the UK with a fresh to strong Westerly flow over the UK. The most likely weather from this would be showers and longer spells of rain for all, heaviest in the West and North.

ECM shows a very mobile pattern in its latter stages with Atlantic Low pressure passing East close to Northern Scotland driving troughs and attendant rain bands East across all areas with sunshine and showers in between.

In Summary the models seem to be firming up on a typical Atlantic based mobile weather pattern for the next few weeks. As is always the case in these situations at any time of year the heaviest and most widespread falls of rain will be in the North and west but indications are that the Lows are close enough in to the North of the UK to affect the south too with trailing fronts delivering rain or intervals of showery weather too with the best of any dry spells most likely in the SE. It looks like temperatures will hold close to normal generally.