"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
news:20121019114216.0c6b24f6@home-1...
On 19 Oct 2012 10:02:37 GMT
Buchan Meteo wrote:

Alastair McDonald scrive:
It is the increase in water vapour, the other major
greenhouse gas, which is causing Global Weirding as was shown in the
eponymous programme shown tonight on BBC 4. It will be repeated on
saturday evening at 8 pm.

That was an interesting programme. However, in today's news, it
states:

"The scientists said there was no evidence that the weather changes
were a result of Man-made climate change." in a BBC article about
said weird weather.
( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19995084 )


Of course there can't be any evidence that one year's weird weather in
one country is a result of AGW; you have to look at the frequency of
extreme weather events over a larger time period and area. However,
that doesn't mean that this year's "weird weather" wasn't caused or
made worse by AGW.


All the "weird" weather over the world has got "climate change" signature
written all over it as the atmosphere tries to adjust to a new equilibrium.
Where it will all end up is anyone's guess, but some good people are working
on possible regional ramifications.

As an aside, I clearly remember a conversation I had with a very senior
climate scientist at the MetO way back in 2003 when we first came to Exeter.
He was saying that in the period 2010-2015 the models at the time were
forecasting a dip in global temperatures and was betting on folk saying that
this would be the end of global warming as winters got harsher in Europe. He
was unsure why the models did that but thought it could be down to sea ice
melt. However, from 2020 onwards the same model runs gave a rapid increase
in global temperature. All that was based on certain emission scenarios and
the parameterisations at the time. Interesting nonetheless though!

I reckon us cold and extreme weather lovers have some exciting times on the
way in the near future :-)

Will
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