A quick reply to Dave and Will.

Dave, yes, how right you are to cite presentation (a bit more emphasis on the
social science of perception to optimise the advances in the hard science of
numerical weather prediction) - I hope those who make generalised rants about
'poor forecasts' ponder this.

Will- your comment about Bill Giles intrigued me...

You know one reason why probability forecasts have not been as high profile
here on the TV as they are in the States ?
Bill Giles. For years he argued against them being included regularly.

why the surprise? Well, he chaired the Media session of the RMS conference last
week and said how important it was that a future meeting focus on probability
forecasting. Has he been converted?

That reminds me, I must go downstairs now and put BBC2 on for University
Challenge - the Final, featuring the RMS team. .

Julian Mayes
West Molesey - still dry!