ACUS02 KWNS 130559
SWODY2
SPC AC 130558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N CENTRAL
CONUS...

....SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY ENERGETIC FLOW
ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL
RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AND SLIGHT EWD SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE.
AS THIS OCCURS...THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LEE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT A
BIT EWD...WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT EVOLVES OVER SD.

ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANT E-W FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...WITH WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURES ALOFT
SUPPORTING POCKETS OF GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INVOF THE FRONTAL
ZONE.

....N CENTRAL CONUS...
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL CONUS...INVOF BOTH THE LEE
TROUGH DRIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL AS NEAR A WEAK WARM
FRONT EVOLVING ACROSS SD. WHILE MORE LIMITED NWWD INTO
MT...STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY REGION SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP TO
INTENSIFY -- AIDED MODERATE/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. WHILE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION ACROSS THE SD VICINITY APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL...BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM MT SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT...INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO CONGEAL/SHIFT EWD INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

....THE SOUTHEAST...
REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO A BROAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS ONLY
PULSE/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND THUS LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT.

...GOSS.. 07/13/2011

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