On Friday, December 7, 2012 9:02:09 AM UTC, wrote:
Now underway ....

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2012_merra.pdf



Will

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You should know better and you don't seem to have learned from last year and the year before Will! To ramp the possibility of snow at this stage from an SSW event ("stratwarm" is a poor term) is just that - "ramping"; a winter daftness by people who desperately want it to snow.

For cold (not snow, in the first place) to happen from an SSW event, the reversal of the higher level winds has to be transmitted to the troposphere and this then this has to cause blocking. Neither is certain, though both may happen. The blocking then has to sit in the right position in the Northern hemisphere and if it sits close to the UK (not certain) it has to sit in a position to draw cold air our way (i.e. generally to our west, or to our North). Neither is certain. *Then* amd only then poor robin may have to tuck its head under it's wing in the run-up to Christmas.

If all these factors follow on sequentially, we may get cold conditions with a risk of snow for some/many. That little word *if* was huge by its absence in your post Will and you really should know better.

An SSW is under way, I agree, but the present situation looks like it may be a weak event and even that it may be almost over before it has developed into anything major. The forecasts are not "brilliant". Whether it will affect the UK with snow and be "brilliant news" followed by "COME ON" is..........well, I'll leave that up to the reader to fill in. *))