December 11th 12, 04:28 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2010
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Today's model interpretation (11/12/12)
Darren Prescott wrote:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Saturday.
Issued 0444, 11/12/12
The weekend will see low pressure to the NW of the UK with widespread
wind and rain. Temperatures will be close to average, maybe slightly
above in the far south. The unsettled theme looks like persisting into
next week, with low pressure never far away.
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
High pressure covers Scotland, leading to SE'lies for Northern Ireland
and northerlies elsewhere. Tomorrow a ridge covers England and Wales,
with westerlies for Scotland and southerlies over Northern Ireland. On
Thursday the southerlies spread across the UK as low pressure deepens to
the west. Friday sees strong to gale force SSE'lies over the UK.
T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart continues to show a strong zonal flow over the
Atlantic and Europe. At the 500hPa level an elongated upper low lies to
the west, feeding upper SSW'lies over the UK. MetO has an upper low to
the west with the same results, as is the case with ECM, GEM and JMA.
At the surface all the runs show a low to the west with strong
southerlies over the UK.
Evolution to T+168
ECM shows southerlies and SSW'lies over the UK as the result of a low to
the west on day 6. Low pressure moves across the UK on day 7. GFS has
WSW'lies over the UK on days 6 and 7 due to a low to the NW.
Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show southerlies and SSW'lies as another low moves
in from the west. GFS also has southerlies and SSW'lies as a low moves
slowly eastwards from the Atlantic.
Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres
The ensembles show three more cold days followed by a mild, wet and
windy spell.
ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles also show three cold days, followed by mild conditions
for a time.
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Yuk !!!
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