In article ,
Graham writes:


"The 00Z GFS ensemble quite
strongly suggests that there could be a brief cold spell starting as
little as 11 days away, though it doesn't look like lasting for more
than a few days.

But of course it's not there on the 12Z.

Just more fantasy

I don't bother looking more that a few days ahead, complete waste of time & effort!!

Why is it these models can only predict mild conditions 5 to 8 days ahead but are totally useless at predicting cold conditions?

There's not much use looking at the operational run that far ahead, I
agree, but if there's a strong signal from the ensemble then it can
sometimes indicate that something is up. Equally of course, as in this
case, it can prove to be a mirage.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde