On 18/12/2012 14:50, ron button wrote:
"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
Winter never fails to deliver interest - a fantastic time of year for
meteorologists.

Wow just look at that tropical air coming our way later in the week! Has
its origin in the Caribbean with 564 DAM thickness and 10C 850s by the
time it reaches our shores. We are talking 14C plus in the south if it
stays dry. But that's the thing it will carry a lot of moisture and when
this very warm air comes up against much colder air over Scotland in the
easterly off a still bitter Scandinavia there is going to be copious
amounts of rainfall, bringing yet more flooding and misery. The question
is how far north will the warm air get. If shallow waves run fast
eastwards then most of it will stay in the Channel but it is likely that
in the baroclinic zone one of the ripples will be amplified and a deeper
low will move across the UK introducing clearer drier and colder air by
Christmas day post cold front in a westerly.

During this time the stratwarm mentioned by Mike Trigger begins to
influence the displacement of the Russian high eastwards and build
pressure in the high arctic/Greenland/Canada introducing a very cold
northerly type, perhaps in time for Boxing Day.

So the big weather story later this week will be the wet weather with
potential for floods (and gales), possibly mountain blizzards in Scotland
if cold air hangs on there. Also becoming very mild in the south, possibly
exceptionally so in a few places. As always we await the details from the
high res. models but there are some *ahem* interesting solutions emerging
already.

Exciting stuff.

Boring today, just mild with sunny spells and light winds. T+4.2C at 0900
:-)

Eskimo Will (Haytor, 1017 feet asl, in Devon)
--

Exciting stuff indeed Will ,stimulating as ever,I cannot recall however the
two features you mentioned ,very high temps in the south and arctic cold
come together in such a short period ,
Seems likely therefore only one will come off , I wonder which one you will
go for .......?
Happy Christmas anyway

RonB





In the south with very mild tropical air and arctic air in the north,
if the cold air pushes down over the country could it produce
thundersnow like 2004?

Joe
Wolverhampton