In article ,
Eskimo Will writes:

"Eskimo Will" wrote in message
...
Now looking more progressive.

Awesome run. 492DAM into Iceland on Christmas Day and the
Russian high retreats big time to be replaced by a Greenland high.
Could see the return of "light icing" in the shipping forecasts for
Iceland. Also the introduction of a colder PM flow just might, just
give dartmoor a flake of sleety snow in a heavy shower on
Christmas Day.

However, ....... it is just one run, but so different to yesterday's 12Z
run which retrogressed the Russian high for a while.
Fascinating!

PS BTW Nick if this progressive story comes off then you will have
a brighter holiday with some sunshine in nice clean polar air.

Will
--


The 12Z GFS ensemble 850mb temperature plot is now out. For 51N 2W
(which I suppose would equate to somewhere in the region of Bristol), a
very mild spell leading up to Christmas is followed by a sharp fall in
temperature on Christmas day. After that the spaghetti spreads out
widely, but with the mean close to or just below the long-term average
for the rest of the run. The operational run is one of the milder
ensemble members from about the 28th onwards. So the main features of
the plot haven't altered that much from the 00Z, though the mean
solution is slightly colder.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde