In article ,
Ilsington writes:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion,

I'm guessing that was meant to read "not".

but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the
stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed. The Arctic vortex will
be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow
reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts. The
ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects
the weakening flow and some blocking.

Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows an easterly setting in - at
least in the south - nine days hence.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde