On Dec 31, 8:59*pm, Ilsington
wrote:
On Monday, December 31, 2012 8:22:05 PM UTC, Ilsington wrote:
I do now want to enter into a great discussion, but a significant SSW is now under way and by mid month the stratospheric zonal flow will have reversed.

The Arctic vortex will be well and truly split by mid month and the evidence of the flow reversal can be seen in the extended deterministic forecasts.

The ensembles also show a steady decline in temperature that reflects the weakening flow and some blocking.

My dear Dawlish,
It is with great trepidation that I reply as do want to get into a great discussion. Of course you are right to question my assumption, but it is based on experience and some research.

In my early days I worked on the interaction of the Troposphere and stratosphere. The main research in those day was the upward propagation of energy and the lid imposed by the westerly vortex (Charney/Drazin.

If the vortex reverses then energy is no longer reflected in the same way.. We were able to simulate SSW by forcing the 100hPa height clearly showing the two layers interacting.

It was really interesting to see how a major SSW could reverse the flow to a great depth.
Anyway just some food for thought, hope you receive this with the integrity in which it was sent.

You are in for a major problem that is taxing your keyboard skills
with the same problem as Dullish's brain cell.

I was just looking at the Antarctic sea level charts:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...Refresh+ View

I've got that new storm Seven turning into something a lot larger than
the three Freda made:

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

If you can get the charts from 27th or better still the 28th, you can
see the signal as parallel isobars. There are Lows in the soup as of
the chart for 18:00 -at the time of writing: 31 December 2012.

None at the back end of the series today. The isobars make a complete
circuit of parallel isobars when Seven gets through the Anticyclone
belt on the 5th. A problem there of course is that it goes straight
into the Antarctic continent.

Anything going in perpendicular to the coast usually means a very
large quake. But it is connected to a Tropical Storm, so it shouldn't
get much larger than a 7.5 M.

But what do I know? (Besides all that IS known about that sort of
thing at the moment, of course.)

Presumably you have trained as a climatologist or done a lot of work
with such dick-heads. Try and see your way through all the crap you
have learnt. You might learn something worth knowing.