On Jan 4, 8:21*am, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

...
On Jan 3, 10:45 pm, Adam Lea wrote:

Is the UK currently under the influence of a Bartlett High?

Have just watched the BBC forecast and "events at the top of the
atmosphere" affecting our weather later on and "watch this space" were
mentioned. Consistent with what Will has been saying on here.

* * * * Actually it was first mentioned by Ilsington, yet another
Devonian with a geographical monicker. *Thus I look forward to hearing
from Bovey Tracey who sounds like an agreeably tipsy young lady.
Would Haytor agree?
* * * * I know nothing about SSW's or their correlation with blocking
at a given longitude. *I sense a certain straw-clutching. *Sorry!
==================

LOL Bovey is gorgeous :-)
Yes my friend Pete from Ilsington talked about the imminent (now happening)
SSW in my thread which I labelled "stratwarm" due to the earlier warming. It
is not straw clutching Tudor it is all about atmospheric dynamics. SSWs
enhance/cause blocking and distort the longwave pattern. This increases the
chances of cold weather in the UK but does not always happen, it all depends
on where everything sits.
At present my view is that the normal Strat polar vortex will split and
negative potential vorticity will thrust north building the Arctic high
ridging south down our longitude roughly. If it comes straight down 0W then
the very cold air will keep to our east over Scandinavia, but it will all be
on a knife-edge!
Professionals like John Hammond are right to be excited, as this SSW *could*
be a particularly big one if model output/diagniostics are to be believed..

Will
--http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Haytor/automatic/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Welcome to the weekly weather update for Dartmoor supplied by Haytor
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All of these local Dartmoor forecasts are supplied on an "as is" basis
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Forecast valid from Saturday 5th January to Saturday 12th January
issued on Thursday 3rd January.

Well, as expected last week, the persistent heavy rain has stopped and
I am confident that it is going to stay like this until the middle of
next week when some more rain is expected. However, big changes are
now taking place way up in the stratosphere and these are expected to
start to affect our weather during next weekend and beyond when a
change to very much colder conditions is on the cards. Very low
confidence yet though on outcomes and the all important detail, so
that will be a talking point for next week's forecast discussion to be
issued on the 10th.

Saturday will continue to be mainly cloudy and mild with fog and
drizzle around in a light to moderate SW wind. Temperatures 8-12C.

Sunday continues mainly cloudy and mild with possibly some drizzle.
Maybe some sunny intervals and less fog and mist. Winds SSW light to
moderate and temperatures 7-11C depending on altitude.

Monday will not be much different to Sunday. Staying mainly cloudy and
mild with occasional drizzle in a moderate or fresh SSW wind and
temperatures 7-11C.

Tuesday Rain will spread in slowly from the west during the day as SSW
winds fall light and variable. Probably turning quite foggy with the
rain. Staying mild with temperatures 7-10C but falling during the
afternoon and evening as slightly colder air pushes in.

Wednesday Outbreaks of rain in the morning will ease during the day
and visibility should improve as winds become either a moderate NW'ly
or a light to moderate easterly. Temperatures near normal at 5-8C.

Gradually turning clearer, colder and brighter during the rest of the
week with possibly a return to overnight frost by the weekend but well
above freezing by day. Very unsure of precipitation details though
likely to be mainly dry but low confidence on this.

Go here to check out the long range forecast for the season ahead.

Or go here to look at current weather for Haytor and Postbridge.

NEWS - in 2013 this site will be expanded. Please let me know if you
would like to see something specific by e-mailing
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Please tell your friends and colleagues about this site on Dartmoor!

Will Hand

Chief Forecaster Haytor

Do you archive previous forecasts and are they peer reviewed?