Will, wouldn’t cold air from the west have to be cold thru the depth, since there won’t be a surface inversion layer? I would guess an 850mb temperature of -6c would produce at best a sleety mix. You would need to go down to -8c before getting proper snow. Are we likely to see such cold air from the current set up?


On Monday, January 14, 2013 8:33:48 AM UTC, wrote:
Well after all the uncertainty of the past week over where the block will

sit, if indeed it wouldd. The models now seem to converge on the idea of a

Scandi block with a substantial deep vortex over eastern Canada. The die is

cast for a battle royal. Cold air will establish over the UK after today

forming a wedge. The deep vortex over Canada will help spawn deep lows in

western Atlantic with extremely cold air pushed SE into the Atlantic slowly

warming. As the lows approach the UK numerous trough disruptions look set to

take place with warm air occluding out and fronts edging into the west,

especially SW. These obviously bring the threat of widespread frontal snow

perhaps turning to rain before the cold comes back after each disruption.

Now, with phase 2 of the SSW expected soon and yet more uncertainty, it

would clearly be imprudenet to suggest how long that regime will continue..

All very interesting, and for meteorologists could be one of the most

fascinating winters for a while. Cold lovers will get satisfaction this

week, folk in the SW and Northern Ireland will be biting their nails "will

it, won't it" LOL.

COME ON ! :-)



Will

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http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

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