Hi Joe
Glad to see you back safe and well.
There's a danger that in over hyping forecasts a "Peter cries wolf "
situation arises , whereby - a couple of severe forecasts with attendant
warnings turn out to be relatively benign and the general population become
sceptical. But then when a really dangerous situation unfolds people
consequently take less notice of warnings.
Thankfully, on the whole, the pro's get it right nowadays, certainly as far
as dangerous winds are concerned. But the BBC forecasts for this morning
(and no doubt other authorities) - were on the whole, very wide of the mark.
Whereas the TAF's issued, correctly disagreed with / contradicted the
warnings issued. (certainly they did for this part of the country). Afterall
the TAF's forecast 50mph gusts, and the beeb were going for damaging 70-80
mph gusts, that is a hell of a difference.
I'm not critisising something I couldn't do better myself. I'm sure it
wasn't an easy call one way or the other for reasons that I don't clearly
understand. But mistakes have to be pointed out when they arise.
Tomorrow afternoon a similar situation looks like arising, I wonder if we'll
have a blanket warning of damaging gusts or a more specific forecast with
intendant risk probabilities?
All the best
Alex.

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Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
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"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
No problems here either Alan. Top gust only 46mph.
Looks like the TAF's were spot on last night and the BBC certainly over
done it for this part of the country - if not for all.
Certainly no 70 or 80mph gusts that I can see of.
I didn't think the SSW direction favoured a funnel effect through the
central lowlands anyway, which is required to see gusts of that nature
here - so I was fairly sceptical.
I wonder if tomorrow afternoon will see a similar over-hyped scenario?
Alex.

Hi Alex,

At least more people were aware of this situation and the potential it had
to cause damage. With the death of the young boy by a fallen tree in
Altrincham on New Year's Day I imagine they were on the back foot
slightly.

Joe