In message , Alex Stephens Jr
writes
Hi Joe
Glad to see you back safe and well.
There's a danger that in over hyping forecasts a "Peter cries wolf "
situation arises , whereby - a couple of severe forecasts with attendant
warnings turn out to be relatively benign and the general population become
sceptical. But then when a really dangerous situation unfolds people
consequently take less notice of warnings.
Thankfully, on the whole, the pro's get it right nowadays, certainly as far
as dangerous winds are concerned. But the BBC forecasts for this morning
(and no doubt other authorities) - were on the whole, very wide of the mark.
Whereas the TAF's issued, correctly disagreed with / contradicted the
warnings issued. (certainly they did for this part of the country). Afterall
the TAF's forecast 50mph gusts, and the beeb were going for damaging 70-80
mph gusts, that is a hell of a difference.

It certainly is, especially as the force exerted by the wind is
proportional to the square of the wind speed. The force exerted by a 70
m.p.h. gust is just about double that exerted by a 50 m.p.h. gust.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England