"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

Afterall
the TAF's forecast 50mph gusts, and the beeb were going for damaging 70-80
mph gusts, that is a hell of a difference.

Alex, worth remembering that if the higher gusts (e.g. 60KT+) were
considered less than a 30% probability they wouldn't go in to the TAFs.

I'm not critisising something I couldn't do better myself. I'm sure it
wasn't an easy call one way or the other for reasons that I don't clearly
understand.

The main problem was gauging what percentage of the gradient wind ahead of
the cold front (60-70KT or so) would be realised at the surface,
particulalry over low ground.

A look at the archive reveals the following gusts :-

Loch Glascarnoch 64KT 0500Z
Leuchars 54KT 0600Z
Edinburgh 52KT 0700Z
Ronaldsway 56KT 0800Z

I'm not sure the line convection element was as evident as expected, if it
had I suspect the gusts would've been nearer the gradient speeds, with
results perhaps not dissimilar to events at Dublin last Saturday. Plus there
was concern over possible enhancement due to funnelling effects.

The warning was fully justified, IMHO.

Jon.