In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

Afterall
the TAF's forecast 50mph gusts, and the beeb were going for damaging 70-80
mph gusts, that is a hell of a difference.

Alex, worth remembering that if the higher gusts (e.g. 60KT+) were
considered less than a 30% probability they wouldn't go in to the TAFs.

Following that argument through it would then seem appropriate to say in
the public forecasts that the higher gusts were a possibility but had
less than a 30 percent probability of actually occurring. That's
certainly not the way it came across in any TV forecasts that I saw.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England