"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 28/01/13 22:20, John Hall wrote:
In article
,
Jim writes:
Weather Action forecasts are the only long-range weather forecasts
that have proven skill verified by independent academic statisticians
and published in scientific literature.
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently
verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of
Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial
Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
snip

I know that Dr Wheeler is highly regarded, but I'd like to know exactly
what it was he was examining and what his conclusions were. I have a
feeling that the connection between what he was looking at and Weather
Action might prove rather tenuous.


I found the title and abstract via a quick search:

"A verification of UK gale forecasts by the ‘solar weather technique’:
October 1995–September 1997"

"In recent years the ‘solar weather’ technique of weather forecasting
which takes into account of the influence of the sun has received much
attention. No attempt has hitherto been made to determine the success, or
otherwise, of elements of these forecasts, which include solar predictors
and are prepared 6–11 months in advance of the events they predict. This
paper conducts an evaluation of these forecasts but confines attention to
the prediction of gales. Skill levels are assessed over different seasons.
The results, whilst differing greatly between the seasons, reveal a degree
of success that cannot readily be accounted for by chance and suggest that
this system of forecasting continues to be assessed over a longer time
period to further investigate these findings."

You have to pay to get hold of the full article.

Well I read the full article at work at the time (probably have the full
paper somewhere) and I can tell you that some of the brightest statisticians
there at the Met Office were highly sceptical of the evaluation process.
Whilst nobody could dispute Professor Wheeler's methods it was clear that he
did not appear to be in possession of the full range of forecasts one would
normally require to do a proper unbiased (in the statistical sense) study.
One is also surprised that there were no further published investigations
from that 14 years ago.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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