Darren Prescott wrote:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0449, 08/02/13

The middle of the week will see a weak ridge or col over the UK giving
way to a trough from the west, with temperatures rising a little over
the UK as a result.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
NNW'lies cover the UK as the result of a ridge to the west. There's a
col tomorrow, followed by southerlies on Sunday. Monday sees low
pressure over southern England with easterlies further north.

T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge to the west with a northerly flow over
the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a weak NW'ly flow, as is the case
with MetO. The other runs show more of a northerly flow with the upper
ridge further west.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge from the NW, leading to a mixture of
SE'lies and ENE'lies. MetO has a col, while the other runs show NNE'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a col on day 6, followed by southerlies on day 7 as a trough
approaches from the west. GFS shows a trough crossing the UK on day 6,
followed by a weak ridge and WSW'lies on day 7.

Looking further afield
Days 8 to 10 with ECM show SW'lies and SSW'lies with low pressure to the
west and NW. GFS has low pressure moving eastwards over northern
Scotland on days 8 and 9, leading to WSW'lies and westerlies elsewhere.
On day 10 there are WNW'lies as the low moves away eastwards.

Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres

The GEFS shows mean highs of between 3 and 5C until the 16th, followed
by milder conditions.

ECM ensembles
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/service...-forecast.html
ECM still shows 3 noticeably cold days from the 11th followed by
somewhat milder conditions.


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As you have correctly stated elsewhere Darren - no signs of any real
cold and no true Easterly or N.Easterly driven from Scandinavia for 17
years now. If you accept people won't have accurate information from
before they were 10 years old that means nobody under 27 can remember
real cold spells. As the opinion formers and media pundits become
younger so the definition of a bitterly cold spell becomes diluted we
will see an increasing number of these non-cold "cold spells" !
Dave