On Mon, 11 Feb 2013 10:44:11 +0000
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
The thing I don't get is why ruin what was an excellent actual
forecast for most with warnings that are exaggerated. It was
marginal, it did snow where and when they said it would but to
quote what I said yesterday on here :-"I think they don't really
need to act as concerned as they are though, because surely even
if they get the regions and amounts wrong nowhere is going to see
disruption for long? It isn't really going to be that cold in
subsequent days is it? "
To me it is the warnings that are always the weak point.

I suspect it's partly a legacy of the October 1987 Great Storm, when
their failure to forecast its severity led to a tremendous amount of
criticism in the media. They probably feel that it's safer to err on
the side of too many warnings than too few. And nowadays they may
have a worry that they could even be sued if they fail to forecast a
hazard.

Erring on the side of too many warnings might be something that happens
subconsciously but there's no point in aiming for it. In the marking
process, a warning of something that doesn't happen is as bad as
missing a warning. Overdoing warnings is something that would hit you
in your pay-packet so why would you do it?


To be fair, the wording of the warning did emphasis that any "serious"
snow would be very patchy. It was clearly a case where it was very
marginal. But I think a lot of the people only look at the maps and
never read the accompanying text.

Here's the text from yesterday's midday warning; as I recall, not a
lot different from earlier ones. I don't see much sign of
"snowmageddon."


Issued at: 1148 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid from: 0600 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

Valid to: 0700 on Mon 11 Feb 2013

Rain is expected to gradually turn to sleet and snow as it spreads eastwards during Sunday. Settling snow will be mostly limited to the south Pennines at first, but is likely to become rather more widespread by evening. Even then, cover is likely to be variable, with some places seeing very little, others 2-4 cm and with the potential for 10 cm or more over parts of the south Pennines and 5 to 10 cm for Kent, and more locally over the Midlands and Essex.

Overnight into Monday morning, there is a risk of an area of snow moving westwards across parts of the south Midlands, east and southeast Wales and southern England, with a few cm in places, particularly over higher ground. This warning is updated to cater for this risk.

The public should be aware of the risk of disruption, particularly to
travel.




--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks.
Feeling stressed and frustrated? Try a short session of contemplative
meditation. Or kick a ballboy. (https://twitter.com/GreySkyThinking)