On Wednesday, 27 February 2013 20:18:52 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
At last, enough agreement and consistency to forecast a change in pattern with 80% confidence: "At T240, on 9th March, the present block will have been shifted E/SE from the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to make slow, but steady progress across the UK. A period of southerly winds will have preceded a change to an Atlantic regime. The jetstream may well be showing signs of moving further North, heralding warmer, mT air".



I can't forecast "real spring" until that jetstream shifts northwards, as I've said. There are indications that this may begin to happen around, or soon after, 9th March, but that's not 80% certain, by any means.



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day outlook and in the 16-30 outlook, colder conditions persist.

Bit late mate. Piers has already forecast that.