"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
At last, enough agreement and consistency to forecast a change in pattern
with 80% confidence: "At T240, on 9th March, the present block will have
been shifted E/SE from the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to make slow, but
steady progress across the UK. A period of southerly winds will have
preceded a change to an Atlantic regime.
The jetstream may well be showing signs of moving further North, heralding
warmer, mT air".
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Not on 12Z GFS it is not. Nor more so on 12Z ECM when you look at where the
main 500 hPa flow is. I'm wondering if Dawlish actually knows how to look
for the jet? Look at GFS 200 hPa flow at T+240 around 9th March and you will
see the jet is solidly around 39N just before and after. What were you
looking at Paul, surely you weren't considering the speed up of winds around
the ridge at 300 hpa a northward movement of the main jet because it clearly
isn't when you look at 200 hPa in conjunction? The charts are consistent
with a low latitude jet and show a potentially slow moving cyclonic regime
with a lot of wet weather. GFS even has sub-528 DAM in the west and north on
the 9th as well!

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I can't forecast "real spring" until that jetstream shifts northwards, as
I've said. There are indications that this may begin to happen around,
or soon after, 9th March, but that's not 80% certain, by any means.
====================================

Looks solidly south to me. So you are wise not to forecast anything like
Spring.



The Meto is still not prepared to forecast this change in their 6-15 day
outlook and in the 16-30 outlook, colder conditions persist.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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