On Sunday, March 3, 2013 2:56:45 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
On Mar 3, 8:38*am, Dawlish wrote:

Horrible 00z ECM and gfs charts this morning. Winter could well be re-gathering to plague the UK.



in like a lamb, out like a lion?

Awful, awful charts to mid-March. Hard to forecast the wind direction with confidence, as the models won't settle on the region in which the blocking will occur, but the extension of Atlantic air over the UK will be short-lived and may not extend much further north than northern England, before an easterly flow re-establishes, perhaps eventually changing to a more northerly airstream, at 10 days. Whichever wind direction is the 10-day outcome, this is a cold and potentially snow-laden forecast, which most in the country would not like to achieve outcome in mid-March.

**An airstream with a source between north and east will bring more unseasonably cold weather with lower than average temperatures, sharp night frosts and possible outbreaks of snow to many areas of the UK, before and on 14th March 2013".

Horrible. Hated writing that and I hope I'm wrong, but that's what the ECM and the gfs have shown now for enough runs for me to have 80% confidence in the outcome, no matter how much I'm personally not looking forward to it.