"Martin Rowley" wrote:
... What I'm not sure of is *why* the EC is consistently better ..
does anyone know?

[and]
On Mar 6, 7:36 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
Isn't it all down to a better analysis?

.... that would seem to be the 'core' difference between centres: after
all the physics, mathematical handling/manipulation, computational
'gizmos' etc., must be well-known through peer-reviewed literature and
exchange working of personnel.

But /why/ the differing analyses needs more work. If one centre has got
a better handle on the initial state that should really be fed through
to other workers; given that all analyses are based on a previous model
iteration (often run several times to provide a nominal 'base'), then
it's almost a self-fulfilling process; better analysis - better
forecast - better 'background' for next cycle - better assimilation of
new data - better forecast etc.

[and]
Len Wood wrote:
But, have I missed something or what?
Verification of what?
I assume output for each grid point against outcome as our erstwhile
Dawlish poster calls it.
But what output? Cloud cover? Precipitation?
I am continuall y trying to convince neighbours and Jo Public that the
Met O forecasts are not rubbish.
But their perception is coloured by the errors in occurence and timing
that are encumbent with the local forecasts and the postcode
forecasts.
Particularly of cloud and rain.

.... I'm pretty sure that such verification is based on differences based
on contour/isobaric analyses - but others may know better. What I /do/
know (from occasionally seeing the output) is that there is a *vast*
amount of explicit/deterministic & probabilistic data now output from
the EC factory at Shinfield which is valued highly by all NMSs
throughout Europe and elsewhere.

I agree with your comment about day-to-day / local specifics; today was
a good case in point. My wife had me pottering in the garden yesterday
(she can't do it herself) putting in a few plants 'because they said it
would rain today [Wednesday]': no rain - back to the watering can.

Martin.


--
West Moors / East Dorset
Lat: 50deg 49.25'N, Long: 01deg 53.05'W
Height (amsl): 17 m (56 feet)
COL category: C1 overall