"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
I'll Batten down the hatches and tie down the greenhouse too Richard.
As far as I can tell from the latest GFS run, the lows southern flank does
indeed look as though it will affect the central lowlands. Winds possibly
being further enhanced by a funneling effect? Judging by the warnings on
the Met office site however, the strongest winds are saved for the far
north
of England. So perhaps still a little disagreement on the prescise track,
and 100km one way or the other could make a considerable difference for
lying in the track of a potential sting jet.
Edinburgh and Prestwick TAF's suggesting 55KT gusts for a couple of hours
either side of 6am.

There is still significant differences between the various models, Alex,
including the possible sting jet development and it's positioning. Thus the
fine detail shouldn't be taken too literally, particularly in volatile
situations such as this.

Also, don't forget the 30% probability threshold TAF wise and that they're
site specific, i.e higher gusts (as mentioned in warning) are likely in the
broadscale, particularly over exposed locations. In saying that I wouldn't
be surprised if the figures were a bit higher in one or two Long TAFs come
the 1600Z issue, at least in association a PROB.

Jon.