On 18/03/2013 15:53, Norman wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in the
overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first alerted
them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop a
number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate forecasting
when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our weather is nearly
impossible to forecast reliably in the level of detail that's really needed
in situations like the one in Oxfordshire. A bit more honesty from the
forecast providers as to the real capability might help to reduce
expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak District)
was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or two of the sun
till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but dry until a spit or
two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be much more different from
what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of muttering around the village
about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then the
page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than one that
is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****


You could, perhaps, produce your own forecast. I'm sure it would be popular.


--
Howard Neil