"Norman" wrote in message
...


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office
at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak
District)
was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or two of the
sun
till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but dry until a
spit or
two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be much more different
from
what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of muttering around the
village
about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then
the
page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than one
that
is so seriously in error.


Norman, that forecast is never amended. Also it is quite difficult to take
it off as it involves the IT guys and *process*, the forecasters have no
control over it.

What we need is a half-decent public nowcasting service. It's possible, but
there is nobody that will pay for it, and no money means no service. The age
of public service for the public good is dead and buried :-(

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
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