On 18/03/2013 16:22, Norman wrote:
Howard Neil wrote:

On 18/03/2013 15:53, Norman wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in
the overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first
alerted them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop
a number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate
forecasting when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our
weather is nearly impossible to forecast reliably in the level of
detail that's really needed in situations like the one in Oxfordshire.
A bit more honesty from the forecast providers as to the real
capability might help to reduce expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met
Office at 0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon.
Accumulations of 10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak
District) was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or
two of the sun till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but
dry until a spit or two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be
much more different from what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of
muttering around the village about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then
the page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than
one that is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****


You could, perhaps, produce your own forecast. I'm sure it would be popular.

It would, indeed, Howard but I've got plenty of other things to keep me busy.
I've got my wife well trained, though. She doesn't go out without having a look
at the radar and she also usually checks the temperature on the AWS. I'm not
convinced that trying to do all of the forecasting remotely from Exeter is a
great success. It might make economic sense but that's another matter
altogether.


Yes, I must admit that mine takes an hour or two out of my day every
morning. Also, once you start, it is not something that you can have a
break from; it has to be a regular forecast. It is, however, very
satisfying.

--
Howard Neil