On 2013-05-20 23:05:57 +0000, Lawrence13 said:

On Monday, 20 May 2013 21:25:28 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:
----- Original Message -----




Year Anom 11 year ave.

1984 -0.051

1985 -0.095

1986 0.114

1987 0.213

1988 0.409

1989 0.323

1990 0.607

1991 0.467

1992 0.086

1993 0.177

1994 0.404 0.241

1995 0.757 0.315

1996 0.227 0.344

1997 0.596 0.388

1998 0.890 0.449

1999 0.701 0.476

2000 0.650 0.506

2001 0.853 0.528

2002 0.906 0.568

2003 0.898 0.642

2004 0.799 0.698

2005 1.019 0.754

2006 0.987 0.775

2007 1.146 0.859

2008 0.857 0.882

2009 0.800 0.874

2010 1.084 0.909

2011 0.876 0.930

2012 0.853 0.930



The scientists have been using a five year trend and that does seem

to have paused recently. That apparent slowing will most likely be

ended by another major El Nino, similarto the one which caused the

1998 large anomaly. Therefore, IMHO, the Scientists are wrong to

argue that there will be a slowdon in the next few years. More likely

we will have a suden warming caused by another large El Nino,

which happen on average every 20 years. Someone ought to tell the

scientists that the climate is a non-linear dynamical system and like

the financial system, another non-linear dynamical system, past

performance is no guide to performance in the future.



In other words, it may be bleeding obvious that the warming is

slowing but it does not mean it will continue.
Cheers, Alastair.
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Ah! at last: even you accept cooling is setting in.

There is little evidence of cooling "setting in" (whatever that really
means) from those figures.

You could have argued that the trend was for noticeable cooling in both
2000 and 2004, after a couple of years of falling temperature anomaly
figures, but both of those were followed by an increase to a figure not
seen in anyones lifetime, so not quite cooling as most people
understand it.

The trend over the last 10 years has been to hover around the +0.9
figure, but even that is 0.5 higher than was the case only 25 years ago.

You have to have a very strange definition of the word cooling, in
order to find the evidence from those figures.