"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Alastair McDonald wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Lawrence13 wrote:
On Monday, 20 May 2013 21:25:28 UTC+1, Alastair wrote:

Ah! at last: even you accept cooling is setting in.

Don't put words in my mouth. There is no global cooling! Temperatures
may
have steadied but that could be only a forerunner to a sharp rise.

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I don't take too much notice of all this but I find the semantics
interesting. Rather than rate of change, if the absolute temperature of
one year is less than the previous year then it's cooled slightly and if
the absolute value has risen from the previous year it has warmed. I'm
not
say this means anything in the important matter of long term trends but
the wording would be factual I guess?

Yes. The sceptics choose 1998 as the start year and the Hadley record
because no other year since then has exceeded that one in the Hadley
record.
The Hadley record ignores the Arctic because it does not have enough data
from there, but the Arctic is where most of the warming is happening.

There is a huge undercover propoaganda machine financed by the US oil and
coal industries mixing facts and smears to discredit the science.

Lawrence's jibe is typical.

Cheers, Alastair.




--------------------------------
You may have missed my point slightly. I think I am saying that if no year
in the Hadley record is warmer than 1998 then in plain English, for that
measurement, it is cooler. This does not mean other areas are cooling or
that GW is reversed but it does mean that!
Dave

Sorry, Dave.

I should have made it clearer that remark was meant for Lawrence. I posted
it after his comment before your post which I replied to separately. If I
had
preceded it by "Lawrence," that would have been clearer, but I was just
being
lazy making one post count for two :-(

With regard to your comments, I agree. The sceptics pick a truth (every year
since 1998 has been cooler) then draw invalid inferences from it. A good
example is Lawrence's more recent post: "OT or Possibly Not Is the Nenana
ice classic a proof of global warming?" There he states a truth: the
Nenana ice melt is very late; then goes on to conclude that John Daley was
a hero. That is the man who claimed to have disproved the evidence from the
records of hundreds of tide guages around the world by rowing out with a
ruler and watch to measure the distance a mark on a rock was above sea
level. It was reading his stuff, which appears convincing, that I first
spotted that technique. He begins each essay with a factual prelude and
concludes it with pseudo science, fallacies, and sly digs at the
establisment.

Another way of looking at the 1998 warming event is that it raised global
temperatures by the amount that the rise in CO2 would take 15 years to
achieve. How much higher will global temperatures rise when the next major
El Nino occurs?

Cheers, Alastair.