On Tuesday, June 11, 2013 7:01:05 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:


The possible plume is shown further east on the 00z gfs and ECM.

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Not on the EC00 at T+240 it's not - 850hPa temperatures are as high as 20C as far as the East Midlands, with CAPE as much as 3,500 J/kg in eastern England at T+222. Not that this will necessarily come to fruition. In fact that specific scenario is low probability at the moment.

"Toppler plume" is a meaningless phrase. The plume, should it develop, may well be just east of the UK, as is so often the case, but that's nothing to do with "toppling".

Stephen.