On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 9:26:04 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:58:00 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote: Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first North African plume of the year. It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms. As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I don't mind. *)) (He says, crossing his fingers!) And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex! Rob Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through and we had to hang onto the gazebo! Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many. However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM. However, at T+240 tonight - the promise of real summer. See if it still there in 24 hours time.

The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting...

That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell.

Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer!