"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message
...
It's for a low probability high impact event.
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OK, thanks. But in that case, I might be tempted to quibble with the way
that the probabilities are being interpreted. I tend to think of 95% as
beyond all reasonable doubt (to use a legal analogy). Therefore, 'beyond all
reasonable doubt' we're simply not going to see any significant rain before
midnight (p0.05). So I'd argue that no warning is justified. A low
probability event might be in the 10-15% band, which is not being forecast.

But that's just how I think.

JGD