On Wednesday, July 24, 2013 11:03:08 PM UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
Just going back to the Met Office July forecast here (which I'm sure will disappear soon for next month's forecast it would be interesting to know where this month's temperature sits on their forecast of a normally-distributed very average month:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...s-temp-JAS.pdf

I actually emailed the Met Office to include verification of the previous month/3 month temperatures to see how they're doing.

Richard

"Overall the forecast signals through this period are very weak......."

What gets me is the implication that there are times when forecast signals are strong - which, again, implies that forecast success rates are significantly higher in some months than others.

I don't see any evidence for that.