"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Wednesday, July 24, 2013 11:03:08 PM UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
Just going back to the Met Office July forecast here (which I'm sure will
disappear soon for next month's forecast it would be interesting to know
where this month's temperature sits on their forecast of a
normally-distributed very average month:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...s-temp-JAS.pdf

I actually emailed the Met Office to include verification of the previous
month/3 month temperatures to see how they're doing.

Richard

"Overall the forecast signals through this period are very weak......."

What gets me is the implication that there are times when forecast signals
are strong - which, again, implies that forecast success rates are
significantly higher in some months than others.

Aren't times 'when signals are strong' likely to be those occasions when you
are
prepared to issue a 10 day forecast based on model consistency?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg