On Thursday, July 25, 2013 5:55:43 PM UTC+1, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Wednesday, July 24, 2013 11:03:08 PM UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:

Just going back to the Met Office July forecast here (which I'm sure will

disappear soon for next month's forecast it would be interesting to know

where this month's temperature sits on their forecast of a

normally-distributed very average month:



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...s-temp-JAS.pdf



I actually emailed the Met Office to include verification of the previous

month/3 month temperatures to see how they're doing.



Richard



"Overall the forecast signals through this period are very weak......."



What gets me is the implication that there are times when forecast signals

are strong - which, again, implies that forecast success rates are

significantly higher in some months than others.



Aren't times 'when signals are strong' likely to be those occasions when you

are

prepared to issue a 10 day forecast based on model consistency?

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

At 10 days and on occasions. Certainly not at a distance of one month - which this was.