On Wednesday, July 24, 2013 11:03:08 PM UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
Just going back to the Met Office July forecast here (which I'm sure will disappear soon for next month's forecast it would be interesting to know where this month's temperature sits on their forecast of a normally-distributed very average month:



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pd...s-temp-JAS.pdf

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Aside from the model verifying badly for July there are a couple of problems with the reasoning in the text forecast: 1. An assumption that SSTs around the British Isles would stay below average; and 2. seemingly a reliance on the ENSO signal (and that alone) slightly favouring cool and unsettled, when even the text said only a weak La Nina (or even neutral ENSO) was in the offing. That's a poor teleconnection for NW Europe. Surely they looked at stronger teleconnections?

Stephen.