On Friday, 26 July 2013 13:40:04 UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:

Aside from the model verifying badly for July there are a couple of problems with the reasoning in the text forecast: 1. An assumption that SSTs around the British Isles would stay below average; and 2. seemingly a reliance on the ENSO signal (and that alone) slightly favouring cool and unsettled, when even the text said only a weak La Nina (or even neutral ENSO) was in the offing. That's a poor teleconnection for NW Europe. Surely they looked at stronger teleconnections?

These aren't statistical forecasts though are they? They're realisations of ensemble members of GloSea5, or that's at least what I thought - so they'll have their own teleconnection patterns within them but any common biases that develop within them that go against reality will cock the lot up.

It's shame we can't get Met Office employees on here to discuss the above forecasts - they're happy to have a twitter account - why not someone on Usenet - probably because Usenet is likely dying a death what with the likes of Farcebook and Twitter.

Richard