Graham Easterling wrote:


Even if the low does develop into a real rip-snorter for Sun night/Mon
morning it won't generate any swell of significance. It's much too small a
feature and won't really wind up until it gets close to the British Isles.
It'll produce very rough wind-generated seas in the Channel, though. The
swell that'll affect Cornwall is being generated by the much larger and
slower-moving parent low that's already quite a deep feature centred just
NE of Newfoundland.

Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

That's why I'm hoping the wind doesn't increase too much until after the
large swell arrives, there may be some quite spectacular surfing waves on the
north Cornwall coast where the wind's offshore (E.g. Sennen, Harlyn) on
Sunday. Apart from the height of the swell, the period will be close to 20
secs.

Theres quite a fair sized area to the WSW of Ireland (in newspaper jargon "an
area 4 times the size of Wales") forecast to have swells in excess of 40' on
Saturday.

In the meantime http://www.streamdays.com/camera/vie..._beach_surfcam

Graham

I'm beginning to wonder if the low will deepen as much as the models have been
predicting. At 1000z today it appears to be a very small feature with a central
pressure of about 999 mb. It has to deepen by 22 mb in 14 hours to get to the
situation predicted in the Met Office 24-hour prog for 00z tonight. It might
still do it but it hasn't shown a lot of deepening so far. As always, the devil
is going to be in the detail.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.