Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0609z, 14/01/05.
The models persist in showing unsettled weather for the UK, with the worst
of the winds for northern areas. Longer term the 00z GFS is much less keen
(than yesterday) to bring a northerly plunge across the UK, but as ever more
runs are needed.
ECMWF:
http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
A lagre high covers Biscay, leading to strong westerlies across the UK. The
winds become WNW'lies at T+144 as the high declines slightly, followed by
more of the same at T+168.
MetO:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
A large high lies to the NE of the Azores, with lows to the west and east of
Iceland. This leads to strong westerlies and WNW'lies over the UK, followed
by further WNW'lies at T+144 as a shallow low moves ENE'wards around the
Azores High.
GFS:
http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Strong to gale force westerlies cover the UK, with high pressure over Iberia
and complex low pressure west of Norway. 850hPa temperatures vary from -5C
over northern Scotland to +6C over Cornwall. The winds become WNW'lies at
T+144 as a weak ridge builds to the west, followed by westerlies and
WNW'lies as a trough crosses the UK on day 7. Day 8 sees a ridge over
Ireland and the Irish Sea, with northerlies or NW'lies elsewhere. High
pressure builds over France on day 9 to bring southerlies for most areas,
with easterlies for many on day 10 as high pressure builds over Scotland.
GEM:
http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run also shows strong to gale force westerlies, followed by
WNW'lies at T+144 due to a weak ridge building to the west. By T+168 a
secondary low lies to the north of Scotland, bringing strong westerlies for
most.
GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...140000_120.gif
Low pressure lies to the west of Norway, bringing westerlies across the UK
in conjunction with a high over Biscay.
JMA:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
Unavailable today.
NOGAPS:
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
A deep low is located to the SE of Iceland, leading to strong westerlies for
all.
GM CPTEC:
http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
Unavailable today.
KMA:
http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The UK is sandwiched between a low to the north and a high to the south,
with strong westerlies as a result.