On Saturday, November 23, 2013 9:30:57 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 18, 2013 8:15:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Probably a better way of phrasing this is to highlight the pressure regime, rather than the wind direction.







**On 28th Nov, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of an anticyclone. Night frosts will be common, if the skies clear and the east coast may be subject to wintry showers, if there is a flow over the UK from the North Sea, but the main weather type is likely to be cool, with grey skies and generally light winds. **







There will be no gales around the 27th/28th November in the UK, this year. *))



I doubt whether this forecast won't achieve outcome now (must be one of the easier forecasts, again, I suppose?). It also looks as if the HP will extend beyond the 28th, but possibly not to T+240, unless the models (especially the GEM) show more agreement than they do this morning. My confidence in that happening is not high enough.



Would this be a "difficult" time to forecast, or does anyone feel that the 10-day forecast for 3rd December is another easy one?

I think I was right not to have confidence enough to forecast yesterday. The chances of high pressure dominating the UK weather in 10 days, on 4th Dec are under 80% for me. The situation for a European High (Bartlett) sending mild South-Westerlies over the UK, I would give a lower probability that that.