Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, November 24, 2013 10:16:18 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, November 24, 2013 1:30:09 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
When was the last time we had a Bartlett High dominated winter? That
would put the mockers on Exacta weather and The Daily Excess. The signs
could be there at the start of December.
You have confidence enough to say that there will be a Bartlett High in 10 days Dave? Really? With those charts?
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Nope! I can't see where I said that? I said there are signs that there

could be. Not a forecast. A bit like yout Easterlies at 240 headline,

although a bit less of a non-forecast than yours was.

Dave

You didn't say that, Dave and neither did I say you had. What I'm asking is what confidence do you have in that "idea" and would you forecast it with the models as they are at present? A commentary is fine, but as you seldom do these kind of things, but we have been in discussion about my forecasting, I don't think it is wrong to check. The 06z gfs wouldn't suggest a Bartlett High, following on from the overnight models.

Model fluff?

PS I'm always clear when I'm giving a commentary on the models, or whether I'm forecasting at 10 days, but I think you know that. *))
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Well you implied it - "You have confidence enough to say that there
will be a Bartlett High in 10 days Dave?"
There were lots of days at T300+ with signs but as that is just
mathematical fun I would never forecast such.
" A commentary is fine, but as you seldom do these kind of things,"
Not sure what kind of things I don't do? I do a local forecast every
week though for 5-7 days which I feel is the limit of useful accuracy.
Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's not. Before you ask - I don't do a
verification each week, I should, but I can't be bothered because it
will make no difference to what I do.
Dave