On Saturday, November 30, 2013 2:02:04 PM UTC, Scott W wrote:
I have posted a winter forecast on wordpress - the link of which is http://wp.me/p2VSmb-hY



I have tried to be as objective as possible, basing my findings on means and what has happened in the months of October and November.



Because it is based on data stretching back over 130 years to my local area it can only really by applied to this part of the south-east.



It is not a hopecast. As much as I like snow I am much less keen on the ever rising cost of heating fuel - so find I'm much more pragmatic about it. If it snows it snows.



For those that don't want to visit wordpress the body text follows:



Much has been printed in the tabloids over the past month or so that we are in for a severe winter. Not a week goes by without the Daily Express splashing that the ‘Worst winter EVER is on the way’. Just this morning the same rag told us that three months of ‘exceptionally cold’ weather are due. On closer inspection the story elaborated the scene with quotes from James Madden of Exacta Weather, one of the ‘experts’ feeding these fantastical stories.



Quite how Mr Madden and other experts arrive at these forecasts is a bit of a mystery. The mystery has deepened further since I decided to crunch a few numbers and try to predict what is in store for the months ahead. Looking at data for this area stretching back over 130 years to 1881 I decided to calculate a seasonal average and arrived at a final figure using singularities – basically looking at the weather patterns we’ve had during October and November.



Many professionals would scoff at this method of pattern-matching, so I’ve incorporated a couple of other ‘now’ factors and taken on board current variables such as sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific.



The figure I arrived at, taken as an average of the closest matching autumn periods, is a mean temperature of 4C with rainfall totalling 133mm over the months of December, January and February – that’s about a degree colder than average and 90% of average rainfall. The probability of a winter with a mean temperature of between 4C and 5C is 37% – the most likely outcome. With this in mind a winter in the form of 1986-87 is possible – though whether we would see the same extremes of temperature and snowfall that we experienced in January 1987 only time will tell.



Because this format can't cope with the formatting on usenet I have posted a full methodology of my forecast here.http://sdrv.ms/18sYo9N



Anyway, I hope some of you find it an interesting read. I'll be revisiting it on March 1. Best regards, Scott Whitehead

At least there is a methodology! Good luck. I hope you'll return to it at the start of March and say what you think about it.