In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at
the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @
T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a
lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something
may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and
December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be
watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.

Although a complete lack of stratwarm...

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...tdata/annual/m
erra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.pdf

I think that stratwarms are much more common later in the winter.
Although I note that the very cold (in the UK) March 2013 occurred in
spite of stratospheric temperatures having been very much on the low
side at the time and for several weeks previously.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"