In article ,
Len Wood writes:
On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:54:26 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at

the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @

T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a

lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something

may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and

December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be

watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...tdata/annual/m

erra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.pdf



I think that stratwarms are much more common later in the winter.

Although I note that the very cold (in the UK) March 2013 occurred in

spite of stratospheric temperatures having been very much on the low

side at the time and for several weeks previously.
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But the UKMO thought that strat warming in Jan 2013 contributed
to the cold Spring 2013.

See

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...ld-spring-2013

Interesting. I hadn't expected there to be an influence so long
"downstream".
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"