On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:01:17 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Hi



The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out...



Bruce.

Whatever is shown at T+312, Bruce, is not to be taken with any belief that it will happen! Not saying that you are here; I realise it is just a comment.

It's not, however, the first time the far reaches of the gfs have shown something different; the ECM has shown something different at T+240 on a couple of round, but that's all. The gfs has actually been more consistent and more accurate at 10 days, throughout the zonal spell, not once showing anything different to Atlantic, zonal weather since the onset of this spell around Dec 11th. Maybe at 12 days it is picking up on something, but I doubt it.