In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
John Hall wrote:
In article ,
exmetman writes:
You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!
Well with the 12Z ECMWF it's back on the cards.
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Very few winters are entirely zonal. It's odds on that there'll be a
pattern change before the month is over. The signs are starting to
creep in even if it doesn't happen for three weeks.

Of course late January is often a favoured time for such a change. One
thinks of 1947, 1956 and 1986. In 1947, if one looks at the chart for as
late as 17th January, it's a classic zonal picture with little hint of
what was to come:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470117.gif

But by the 22nd high pressure had drifted north over the UK and
established itself over Scandinavia:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119470122.gif

One wonders, if the current computer models were run with the old data
for January 1947, would they have predicted the change. (Of course back
then there wasn't any satellite data, which would handicap the models,
though I suspect that if anything there was better surface data. They
had the ocean weather ships, for one thing.)
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"