On Saturday, 4 January 2014 20:45:02 UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

Stratwarms on the way up atm, be interesting to see if this has any

significance over the coming weeks. http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.

pdf



Today's 12Z ECMWF operational run shows a big change starting to set in

as early as next Friday (T+144), with the weather from then on becoming

much more settled, first in the south but then in the north as well. If

skies clear then frost and fog seem likely. Out as far as T+240 it

doesn't look like turning particularly cold, though there's the

potential for it to do so shortly thereafter, especially in the south.

But whether that will happen and how soon will depend on the precise

positioning of the anticyclone.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

I do wonder whether ecm takes account of SSW whereas gfs may not, hence at the moment gfs is keen on staying zonal.

When I say 'punishing', I think of the song 'The Grand old Duke of York', 'he marched them up to the top of the hill and he marched them down again', when the models tease us at T+240 and beyond like a yoyo :-)

I think the SSW situation doesn't show positioning, which may determine where any blocking may occur, so I very much doubt a carbon copy of last year.

And then ones wonders what the SSW stiuation was in years like 1947 and 1963, especially when 1947 didn't get going until later in January, but here I go again marching up that hill LOL.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx