On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 9:20:23 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 8, 2014 7:02:17 AM UTC, Robin Nicholson wrote:

On Tue, 7 Jan 2014 12:30:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish

wrote:

The first one of the winter. There's half a chance that this situation at 10 days could just develop into an easterly, or south easterly. and pull in some cold continental air. No certainties at all around this, but I'm watching it closely. See how things are tomorrow evening. It certainly looks like the zonal train will pull into a station. Whether it will fire up again and head on down the track, really isn't clear.
Good and thanks for posting this. A frowing consensus of change is in

the air.

We did not get a drop here in Hilton from the thing that run along the

south coast last night.

Cheers Robin,Hilton

Models firming up on an easterly developing in a week's time. There's agreement, I'm waiting for consistency to forecast. Funny how the model development of these things can come closer to the present time, at a faster rate than the movement on of each model run. 24 hours ago, this easterly was not showing as clearly at 10+ days time and now it is suddenly there at 6/7 days.

I imagine the coldies on the forums will be beside themselves with excitement.

As an extra: the MetO have not picking up on this in their 6-15 day précis, though to be fair, this was last updated yesterday morning. It shows how quickly the models can change. Why the MetO doesn't update this more frequently has always been a mystery to me. If the 06z gfs shows the same as the 00z and the MetO's longer range model (to which they deem the hoi polloi worth of access) shows similar to the ECM and gfs (and others) I would expect this forecast from yesterday to change later this morning:

"UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 21 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as of late. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, whilst the south and east will hang on to the driest weather. Temperatures are likely to be colder than recently in most areas with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Thereafter, more changeable conditions are likely in the north and west of the UK with the best of the drier weather in the south and east. It will be rather cold in the north with an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures further south.

Updated: 1129 on Tue 7 Jan 2014"

See how things develop today.